cross-posted at Election Inspection
Swing State Polls, below the flip, divided into 3 catgories:
Defense: States Kerry won (CT, MI, MN, NH, NJ, OR, PA, WI) Red-to-Blue: States Kerry lost where Obama is winning or tied (CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA) Frontiers: States where Obama is close behind McCain (FL, MS, NV, NC, ND)
The summary: Obama 317, McCain 221.
Defense: States that John Kerry won
StatePollObamaMcCainKerryBush| Connecticut | Rasmussen 5/29 | 47 | 44 | 54 | 44 |
| Michigan | Rasmussen 6/9 | 45 | 42 | 51 | 48 |
| Minnesota | Rasmussen 6/11 | 52 | 39 | 51 | 48 |
| New Hampshire | Rasmussen 5/21 | 48 | 43 | 50 | 49 |
| New Jersey | Quinnipiac 6/5-6/8 | 45 | 39 | 53 | 46 |
| Oregon | Rasmussen 6/11 | 46 | 38 | 52 | 48 |
| Pennsylvania | Rasmussen 5/21 | 45 | 43 | 51 | 49 |
| Wisconsin | Rasmussen 6/5 | 45 | 43 | 50 | 49 |
Note: The U. of Wisconsin poll has Obama up 50-37, but I found the question order to be a little biased. They ask for Bush's approval rating before McCain's and before Obama is matched against McCain.
They asked Obama's favorables, then Bush's favorables, then McCain's favorables, then Obama vs. McCain. I find this order to be questionable.
I added New Jersey to the list, the siren state that lures Republican hopes and then dashes them against the rocks. The GOP always does about 5% worse than the polls would have them believe in New Jersey. Last week we had new polls in Minnesota, where Obama's prior 5 point lead swells to 15, and Oregon, where the lead narrows slightly from 10 to 8. Connecticut and New Jersey are states where Obama leads by less than Kerry did, but neither state worries me at all.
Red-to-Blue: States that John Kerry lost where Obama is leading or tied
StatePollObamaMcCainKerryBush| Colorado | Rasmussen 5/19 | 48 | 42 | 47 | 52 |
| Iowa | Rasmussen 6/10 | 45 | 38 | 49 | 50 |
| Missouri | Rasmussen 6/3 | 43 | 42 | 46 | 53 |
| New Mexico | SUSA 5/16-5/18 | 44 | 44 | 49 | 50 |
| Ohio | SUSA 5/16-5/18 | 48 | 39 | 49 | 51 |
| Virginia | SUSA 5/16-5/18 | 49 | 42 | 48 | 51 |
No new polls here. As I said last time,
A Rasmussen New Mexico poll from around the same period has Obama up by 9. However, a Quinnipiac Ohio poll from in a similar timeframe has McCain up by 4. How OH and NM poll post-Clinton endorsement remains to be seen.
I expect to see new Rasmussen polls this week in New Mexico, Virginia, and Ohio; perhaps as soon as this afternoon.
Frontiers: States where Obama is close behind McCain
StatePollObamaMcCainKerryBush| Florida | Quinnipiac 5/13-5/20 | 41 | 45 | 47 | 52 |
| Mississippi | Rasmussen 5/27 | 44 | 50 | 40 | 60 |
| Nevada | Mason-Dixon 6/9-6/11 | 42 | 44 | 48 | 51 |
| North Carolina | Rasmussen 6/10 | 43 | 45 | 44 | 56 |
| North Dakota | Dakota Wesleyan U. 3/24-4/3 | 38 | 44 | 36 | 63 |
I almost added Kansas to this section when a Cooper & Secrest poll showed Obama trailing by only 4, but today's Rasmussen poll has Obama down by 10 there. The new poll here is Nevada, where Obama closes from 6 to 2. That officially means that Obama is polling better than Kerry's results in all of these states. But as I said last time,
I don't really trust the North Dakota poll.
No change in the Electoral Vote Count. If we assume Obama wins New Mexico, the Electoral Vote tally stands at Obama 317, McCain 221.